* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052019 08/24/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 49 56 62 64 69 70 71 74 76 82 84 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 49 56 62 64 69 70 71 60 41 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 37 41 46 50 54 57 59 60 59 50 37 41 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 3 5 5 9 10 10 10 13 6 16 16 10 9 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 3 2 1 1 -1 -3 -2 -7 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 122 135 103 23 18 337 348 288 286 250 234 235 261 287 293 302 326 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.3 29.8 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 145 144 144 147 150 150 152 155 155 153 152 157 166 164 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 145 143 143 147 149 148 148 152 150 147 144 148 156 153 151 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 43 44 40 39 40 42 46 48 50 48 51 50 54 58 59 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 7 8 6 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 36 26 18 21 0 17 13 18 13 25 13 5 1 -9 -16 -31 200 MB DIV 2 -6 -10 -21 -19 -4 -4 19 20 29 42 1 9 -1 26 6 14 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -8 -7 -4 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 -5 -13 -15 LAND (KM) 760 719 692 661 641 633 515 389 372 467 304 145 72 -24 -44 46 43 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.8 12.5 13.3 14.1 14.9 15.8 16.7 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.6 50.6 51.6 52.6 54.7 56.6 58.5 60.4 62.3 64.2 66.0 67.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 16 15 16 24 40 42 38 48 46 62 81 82 61 61 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 31. 35. 39. 40. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -12. -12. -16. -19. -20. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 19. 26. 32. 34. 39. 40. 41. 44. 46. 52. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.6 48.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 FIVE 08/24/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.77 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 15.6% 10.5% 7.6% 7.0% 10.7% 13.0% 26.6% Logistic: 5.1% 20.5% 16.8% 5.6% 2.0% 10.7% 10.4% 19.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 5.6% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% Consensus: 3.6% 13.9% 9.8% 4.4% 3.0% 7.4% 8.1% 15.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 FIVE 08/24/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 FIVE 08/24/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 37 41 49 56 62 64 69 70 71 60 41 47 49 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 38 46 53 59 61 66 67 68 57 38 44 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 42 49 55 57 62 63 64 53 34 40 42 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 34 41 47 49 54 55 56 45 26 32 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT