* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP102019 08/23/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 43 39 38 34 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 47 43 39 38 34 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 47 44 41 38 33 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 13 8 3 4 8 12 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 2 0 -1 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 49 50 39 19 246 212 179 173 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.1 26.2 25.9 25.3 24.0 23.0 21.5 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 134 125 122 115 102 91 76 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 60 61 62 55 56 49 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 21 20 21 18 17 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 45 17 -3 5 -24 -34 -27 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 49 1 -30 -29 -32 -7 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -3 -2 0 -1 3 -1 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 663 617 569 538 521 472 393 337 318 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.1 20.9 21.7 22.4 24.0 25.5 27.0 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.1 115.5 115.9 116.3 116.7 117.4 118.0 118.3 118.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -4. -6. -12. -19. -20. -19. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -12. -16. -20. -30. -42. -43. -44. -44. -44. -43. -41. -40. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.3 115.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102019 IVO 08/23/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.43 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102019 IVO 08/23/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##