* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL042019 08/23/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 25 27 27 30 32 34 35 36 35 35 35 36 39 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 25 27 27 30 32 34 35 36 35 35 35 36 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 8 10 15 17 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 1 5 6 2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 125 147 160 183 205 213 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 118 118 121 123 122 121 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 96 96 98 100 98 97 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.9 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.9 1.2 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 37 36 35 34 38 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -77 -88 -98 -99 -106 -80 -29 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -50 -27 -19 -10 -13 6 9 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 1 0 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1535 1554 1575 1556 1538 1491 1435 1380 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.4 36.0 35.6 35.5 35.4 35.4 35.7 36.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.8 41.1 41.4 41.9 42.5 43.5 44.1 44.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 5 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 1 2 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. 11. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 36.4 40.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042019 CHANTAL 08/23/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.39 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.03 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.17 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.6% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 5.3% 4.3% 1.8% 0.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 5.7% 4.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042019 CHANTAL 08/23/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042019 CHANTAL 08/23/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 25 25 27 27 30 32 34 35 36 35 35 35 36 39 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 27 27 30 32 34 35 36 35 35 35 36 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 24 24 27 29 31 32 33 32 32 32 33 36 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 17 20 22 24 25 26 25 25 25 26 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT