* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP102019 08/23/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 41 39 37 33 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 41 39 37 33 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 47 45 42 38 33 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 16 10 8 5 5 8 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 5 2 2 2 0 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 54 46 37 26 24 211 192 175 180 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.2 27.2 26.3 25.9 24.4 23.4 21.9 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 146 135 126 122 107 96 81 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 64 62 61 61 57 57 50 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 21 20 19 17 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 59 34 15 -5 -13 -35 -19 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 52 37 3 -25 -16 -24 -12 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -21 -3 -1 -1 -2 0 1 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 706 686 647 604 572 528 423 388 384 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.2 19.9 20.7 21.4 23.2 25.1 26.9 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.3 115.7 116.1 116.5 117.2 118.0 118.8 119.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 10 10 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -17. -25. -36. -36. -36. -36. -37. -36. -34. -34. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.4 114.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102019 IVO 08/23/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.49 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.19 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.3% 7.9% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.1% 2.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102019 IVO 08/23/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##