* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP102019 08/23/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 48 47 44 38 33 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 48 47 44 38 33 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 50 48 42 35 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 22 19 17 12 5 4 7 15 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 11 12 9 5 6 2 2 1 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 46 52 43 49 44 187 195 167 164 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.4 27.6 25.9 24.3 22.3 21.1 19.9 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 154 148 140 122 106 85 72 60 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 67 64 61 60 58 55 51 47 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 24 24 25 24 21 18 16 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 64 58 42 33 -2 -16 -41 -34 -28 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 53 39 43 20 -28 -25 -25 -9 -15 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -29 -22 -9 0 0 2 7 0 -5 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 825 792 769 746 707 625 582 498 483 485 484 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.2 17.9 18.7 19.5 21.2 23.1 25.0 26.6 27.9 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.6 115.1 115.6 116.1 117.0 117.9 118.9 119.7 120.3 121.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 21 17 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. -0. -3. -8. -12. -17. -22. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -8. -11. -17. -22. -29. -39. -50. -50. -50. -49. -47. -46. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.5 114.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102019 IVO 08/23/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 225.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102019 IVO 08/23/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##