* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL042019 08/22/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 38 39 40 43 44 44 44 44 46 47 50 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 38 39 40 43 44 44 44 44 46 47 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 34 35 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 11 6 3 8 14 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -5 -5 -5 -2 0 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 243 270 278 265 123 167 203 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 26.3 25.8 25.8 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.9 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 117 111 110 114 115 117 120 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 97 92 91 93 93 94 97 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -54.2 -53.8 -53.3 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.1 0.9 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 31 31 32 35 38 38 36 35 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -103 -106 -95 -93 -78 -85 -96 -104 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 -33 -49 -40 -47 -24 -16 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 -14 -14 -9 -4 -1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1111 1214 1318 1391 1466 1542 1541 1472 1405 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.0 38.5 38.0 37.5 37.0 36.2 35.8 36.1 36.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.4 43.3 42.2 41.6 41.1 41.0 41.7 42.5 43.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 7 5 3 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 16 CX,CY: 16/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 16. 17. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 39.0 44.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042019 CHANTAL 08/22/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 82.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 4.1% 3.5% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 1.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042019 CHANTAL 08/22/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042019 CHANTAL 08/22/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 34 35 38 39 40 43 44 44 44 44 46 47 50 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 33 36 37 38 41 42 42 42 42 44 45 48 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 29 32 33 34 37 38 38 38 38 40 41 44 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 25 26 27 30 31 31 31 31 33 34 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT