* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP102019 08/22/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 53 55 56 55 54 49 43 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 53 55 56 55 54 49 43 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 52 53 52 47 41 35 30 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 19 22 21 22 16 13 5 7 10 15 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 2 2 2 7 7 1 5 -1 1 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 42 51 49 47 33 23 309 223 168 167 154 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.0 26.8 25.0 23.0 21.6 20.7 20.4 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 157 153 143 131 113 92 77 67 64 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 76 72 71 67 62 59 60 56 57 49 47 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 25 24 25 26 24 24 21 19 15 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 107 127 106 87 65 36 16 -8 -13 0 5 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 76 61 54 31 12 -21 -36 -16 -12 -15 4 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -13 -10 -13 -9 -21 -9 -11 -2 -6 -1 0 -9 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 827 815 821 815 821 791 724 697 630 589 601 609 615 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.9 20.3 21.8 23.5 25.1 26.5 27.7 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.1 114.1 114.8 115.6 116.6 117.4 118.3 119.1 120.1 120.9 121.6 122.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 22 23 21 17 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 376 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 4. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 1. -3. -8. -12. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 4. -2. -13. -23. -33. -32. -31. -32. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.7 112.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102019 IVO 08/22/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.03 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.93 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 23.5% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% Logistic: 1.2% 5.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 9.6% 6.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102019 IVO 08/22/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##