* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP092019 08/12/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 34 33 32 30 28 25 25 24 25 26 26 27 29 29 31 V (KT) LAND 35 36 34 33 32 30 28 25 25 24 25 26 26 27 29 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 36 34 30 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 11 10 12 7 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 0 -1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 12 37 49 66 101 81 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.3 25.4 24.2 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 145 142 137 127 119 106 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 59 59 61 55 57 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 7 6 6 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -19 -7 -3 -6 -18 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 -13 5 -3 -1 6 29 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -3 0 -1 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 417 435 479 525 559 744 964 1186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.1 21.6 21.7 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.7 113.7 114.9 116.0 118.7 121.8 124.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 11 11 12 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.5 111.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092019 HENRIETTE 08/12/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.65 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.41 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.23 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.89 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 11.1% 11.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 4.0% 4.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092019 HENRIETTE 08/12/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##