* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 08/01/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 53 52 48 43 38 33 25 21 23 23 23 23 20 18 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 53 52 48 43 38 33 25 21 23 23 23 23 20 18 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 53 52 48 42 37 33 28 24 22 21 21 21 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 15 11 13 16 18 18 24 32 33 35 30 37 30 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 0 2 3 2 3 4 6 4 -2 3 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 346 341 317 294 290 285 279 267 273 269 263 254 232 234 242 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.7 27.1 26.9 26.4 25.9 26.5 26.1 26.0 26.4 26.7 26.9 26.6 26.3 25.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 137 134 129 124 130 125 124 128 131 133 130 128 121 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -54.0 -54.2 -55.0 -55.3 -56.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 56 57 57 57 56 63 63 64 66 64 60 51 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 18 18 18 15 14 13 10 9 10 10 12 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -27 -15 -11 -12 -2 -22 -10 -25 -37 -21 20 5 -10 -28 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -22 -16 -1 8 35 0 7 9 13 30 85 47 19 11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -6 -3 -5 -4 -5 4 4 3 11 13 19 12 11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2236 2241 2076 1918 1760 1456 1173 905 639 376 225 226 399 677 959 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.8 20.9 22.4 24.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.4 133.9 135.4 136.9 138.3 141.1 143.7 146.2 148.7 151.2 153.2 154.7 155.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 12 14 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 9 21 15 3 0 5 0 0 2 4 6 7 1 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -25. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -13. -14. -12. -11. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -12. -17. -22. -30. -34. -32. -32. -32. -32. -35. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.8 132.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/01/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.43 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.28 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 321.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 -3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.87 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.13 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 16.0% 13.6% 10.0% 6.9% 7.7% 7.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.8% 4.7% 3.4% 2.3% 2.6% 2.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/01/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##