* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 08/01/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 68 62 56 51 40 35 30 29 24 23 21 22 21 20 19 18 V (KT) LAND 75 68 62 56 51 40 35 30 29 24 23 21 22 21 20 19 18 V (KT) LGEM 75 68 62 56 50 41 36 33 30 28 26 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 34 34 38 37 42 44 40 41 37 36 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -5 1 1 -4 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 253 251 255 255 262 264 264 269 273 276 277 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 141 139 140 142 145 145 149 148 150 148 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 49 50 50 50 49 49 50 48 44 43 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 15 13 10 11 9 11 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 7 0 4 7 2 10 18 21 15 31 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 28 27 30 42 24 45 39 45 17 -4 -24 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 12 10 12 12 7 6 4 4 4 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 533 437 345 286 293 439 477 530 628 746 845 938 1047 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.6 21.3 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.7 153.0 154.3 155.7 157.0 159.5 161.9 163.9 165.6 167.1 168.3 169.3 170.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 15 12 15 25 23 28 25 29 29 27 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -15. -22. -26. -29. -31. -33. -35. -38. -37. -39. -40. -40. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -12. -10. -13. -13. -14. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -19. -24. -35. -40. -45. -46. -51. -52. -54. -53. -54. -55. -56. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.7 151.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 08/01/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 43.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 477.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 08/01/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##