* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 08/01/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 83 76 69 62 50 40 34 31 30 26 26 24 25 25 27 27 V (KT) LAND 90 83 76 69 62 50 40 34 31 30 26 26 24 25 25 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 90 83 76 69 63 52 43 36 32 29 26 25 24 23 23 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 23 30 33 40 39 44 37 46 41 38 24 13 13 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 4 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 0 0 0 1 0 3 -3 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 220 223 241 255 258 262 260 264 260 268 274 269 280 311 320 330 358 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.3 27.3 27.8 28.3 28.7 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 144 145 143 138 138 143 148 151 148 148 146 145 142 140 136 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 49 52 53 53 54 54 53 53 55 52 47 47 44 42 42 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 17 14 13 10 10 9 9 7 8 7 6 4 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR -1 2 3 1 -2 0 4 0 9 12 13 18 9 -12 -40 -47 -64 200 MB DIV 44 11 6 21 31 35 23 24 48 48 40 -10 -26 -33 -13 -20 3 700-850 TADV 8 3 4 9 9 9 10 7 6 5 5 2 2 2 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 792 681 577 474 376 264 359 436 427 519 652 792 924 1040 1141 1237 1345 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.9 18.8 19.7 20.6 21.4 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 149.0 150.2 151.3 152.5 153.7 156.2 158.6 160.8 162.8 164.7 166.4 167.9 169.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 7 7 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 13 14 13 18 25 29 40 40 27 25 19 21 19 13 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -8. -13. -16. -19. -21. -21. -21. -22. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -13. -20. -23. -25. -26. -27. -29. -33. -35. -34. -33. -29. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -14. -16. -14. -15. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -21. -28. -40. -50. -56. -59. -60. -64. -64. -66. -65. -65. -63. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.0 149.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 08/01/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 561.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 08/01/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##