* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/31/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 75 74 73 69 66 62 56 51 47 41 37 32 26 21 V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 75 74 73 69 66 62 56 51 47 41 37 32 28 22 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 72 71 71 68 65 62 57 51 45 39 34 29 25 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 22 22 20 21 12 11 17 15 23 21 28 33 37 36 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 4 -2 -2 0 -1 3 4 2 6 5 5 5 3 1 5 2 SHEAR DIR 328 339 335 343 351 356 334 304 300 290 280 280 282 272 253 237 224 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.0 26.4 26.6 26.1 26.5 27.1 27.4 27.4 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 146 145 142 137 133 132 125 129 131 125 130 136 139 139 136 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 -54.5 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 67 69 65 63 63 56 57 56 57 56 57 58 61 64 68 66 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 19 21 20 23 21 21 21 20 19 18 15 14 11 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 28 31 23 15 17 2 5 4 6 1 5 0 -4 -13 -6 -10 -16 200 MB DIV 114 73 37 27 20 -7 14 18 -11 -26 -9 -11 2 -4 23 35 32 700-850 TADV -17 -11 -10 -16 -17 -2 0 -1 -5 0 2 3 0 3 8 6 2 LAND (KM) 1758 1823 1896 1978 2047 2208 2190 1884 1581 1291 1013 747 468 177 35 7 97 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.8 125.1 126.3 127.6 128.9 131.7 134.4 137.2 140.0 142.7 145.3 147.8 150.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 13 12 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 28 20 20 21 16 9 13 14 0 1 7 0 2 14 11 19 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. -1. -4. -8. -14. -19. -23. -29. -33. -38. -44. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 13.3 123.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/31/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.04 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 298.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 -3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.4% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 5.9% Logistic: 3.2% 5.3% 1.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 9.4% 6.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 2.9% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/31/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##