* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/30/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 106 105 103 97 85 68 55 43 37 32 31 28 27 26 26 27 V (KT) LAND 100 106 105 103 97 85 68 55 43 37 32 31 28 27 26 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 100 107 108 103 98 85 72 61 50 42 37 34 33 32 31 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 15 12 11 12 25 32 36 31 32 26 32 39 49 43 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 0 2 9 4 -1 -2 -3 -1 -1 1 0 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 271 287 306 303 291 255 256 263 259 261 265 264 260 254 249 240 236 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.8 27.8 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 142 139 137 143 143 137 139 140 143 144 150 149 150 148 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 62 59 57 55 56 54 56 54 53 53 58 60 60 59 60 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 19 20 19 19 15 14 11 10 8 9 8 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 31 35 26 15 8 1 -1 -8 -9 4 7 12 5 2 2 6 2 200 MB DIV 46 42 53 38 22 37 10 24 33 50 41 69 49 45 7 21 15 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 1 6 13 4 5 7 6 2 4 3 3 -1 4 3 LAND (KM) 1515 1382 1251 1125 1000 785 582 410 281 307 453 470 508 585 715 853 1007 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.8 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 142.2 143.4 144.6 145.8 146.9 149.0 151.1 153.3 155.5 157.6 159.7 161.7 163.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 10 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 12 10 10 9 7 13 13 12 29 21 28 26 37 30 24 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -19. -24. -28. -31. -33. -33. -34. -34. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -12. -15. -18. -22. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 9. 12. 13. 11. 7. 3. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. -0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -8. -13. -15. -17. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 5. 3. -3. -15. -31. -45. -57. -62. -68. -69. -72. -73. -74. -74. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 13.2 142.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/30/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 8.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.52 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 497.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.36 -2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 42.6% 23.4% 20.8% 17.4% 11.5% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.9% 8.8% 6.5% 6.7% 5.2% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.9% 10.9% 9.1% 8.1% 5.6% 4.7% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/30/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##