* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/30/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 70 70 68 62 55 46 39 31 31 29 30 32 30 27 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 70 70 68 62 55 46 39 31 31 29 30 32 30 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 69 68 65 61 54 46 39 33 29 27 26 26 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 16 14 14 12 20 28 33 31 27 24 27 27 41 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -6 -5 0 11 4 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 1 3 7 -1 SHEAR DIR 256 271 289 286 296 299 270 263 264 266 264 268 269 264 259 257 246 SST (C) 28.2 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.0 27.3 27.7 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 149 146 144 140 134 137 142 138 139 138 139 140 142 147 146 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 58 57 56 54 55 54 53 54 57 59 61 60 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 22 21 20 19 17 14 13 9 10 8 8 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 10 22 30 24 19 1 -3 -7 -7 -8 0 6 15 17 10 20 12 200 MB DIV 43 27 29 43 51 18 14 8 8 13 44 36 34 49 54 37 19 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -6 -5 -4 0 7 3 5 4 5 2 4 0 1 -2 3 LAND (KM) 1824 1676 1528 1396 1264 1030 814 635 465 321 313 418 485 491 546 618 716 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.7 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.3 140.7 142.0 143.2 144.4 146.5 148.5 150.4 152.5 155.0 157.2 159.2 161.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 12 12 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 20 15 11 10 5 8 12 11 26 20 21 27 24 33 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -15. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. -3. -10. -19. -26. -34. -34. -36. -35. -33. -35. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 12.6 139.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/30/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.64 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.9% 29.8% 23.4% 17.3% 12.4% 15.8% 11.9% 7.2% Logistic: 8.5% 16.9% 6.3% 4.7% 5.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.4% 7.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.6% 18.1% 10.4% 7.5% 6.0% 5.8% 4.2% 2.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/30/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##