* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/29/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 69 73 74 72 66 59 48 40 35 30 31 29 29 25 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 69 73 74 72 66 59 48 40 35 30 31 29 29 25 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 66 68 68 65 62 56 48 40 34 30 27 26 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 5 10 8 10 12 11 11 23 30 33 31 29 27 34 38 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 -5 -4 -6 -3 3 9 4 2 -1 -1 0 3 5 1 7 SHEAR DIR 107 258 277 275 288 296 294 259 258 257 263 261 262 256 259 245 238 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.1 27.1 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 150 148 146 143 135 135 142 139 137 138 140 142 143 149 145 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.5 -53.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 59 60 63 61 58 53 52 52 51 51 52 54 56 56 62 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 21 23 22 21 20 19 16 14 12 10 10 9 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 7 11 31 31 35 18 4 -3 3 5 11 5 9 27 22 41 29 200 MB DIV 48 40 34 32 57 54 3 9 2 26 25 25 14 49 57 76 51 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 2 2 2 10 9 9 1 2 1 2 3 0 LAND (KM) 1985 1826 1668 1532 1397 1152 915 691 493 310 245 319 465 455 500 576 698 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.7 139.2 140.6 141.8 143.1 145.3 147.5 149.7 151.9 154.2 156.3 158.2 160.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 10 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 20 21 16 11 6 5 12 10 19 29 23 31 30 38 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -4. -7. -8. -11. -9. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 12. 6. -1. -12. -20. -25. -30. -29. -31. -31. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 12.5 137.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/29/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.51 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 5.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.75 8.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 -6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 9.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 43.1% 36.8% 25.0% 24.0% 19.0% 15.6% 10.6% Logistic: 7.8% 24.8% 10.7% 8.1% 5.0% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.9% 23.9% 16.1% 11.1% 9.7% 7.1% 5.6% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/29/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##