* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/29/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 51 57 65 72 76 76 81 76 77 75 72 65 60 53 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 51 57 65 72 76 76 81 76 77 75 72 65 60 53 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 50 58 64 67 71 75 75 75 73 68 63 56 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 2 6 9 11 11 12 15 11 12 8 19 25 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -2 -1 3 4 3 -3 2 0 -1 1 0 0 0 2 4 SHEAR DIR 14 17 9 313 305 316 320 338 7 15 347 337 306 301 297 295 278 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.6 27.9 27.6 27.4 26.8 26.9 26.3 26.5 26.2 26.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 151 149 151 154 152 144 141 139 133 135 128 130 127 125 130 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 69 72 71 72 71 70 69 65 60 56 57 55 57 58 59 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 17 18 19 20 20 20 24 22 25 25 27 24 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -4 9 17 23 14 18 25 26 13 15 7 14 7 19 22 26 200 MB DIV 34 55 62 81 80 71 101 51 66 47 25 23 29 17 9 12 -4 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -3 -2 -7 -8 -8 -3 -14 -9 -2 -3 -5 -1 3 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1094 1218 1279 1352 1438 1614 1760 1918 2080 2237 2203 1873 1552 1245 953 653 366 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.6 16.3 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.3 114.0 115.6 117.1 118.5 121.1 123.7 126.3 128.9 131.6 134.4 137.4 140.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 15 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 15 14 14 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 24 36 39 14 16 32 28 12 13 7 9 18 0 3 1 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 15. 12. 14. 13. 13. 10. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 22. 30. 37. 41. 42. 46. 41. 42. 40. 37. 30. 25. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.5 112.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/29/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.74 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 29.5% 21.2% 15.9% 11.2% 14.7% 24.4% 37.8% Logistic: 19.8% 59.6% 45.9% 35.2% 13.4% 30.0% 12.8% 8.7% Bayesian: 4.5% 51.3% 25.5% 9.7% 4.1% 29.5% 30.5% 1.0% Consensus: 12.2% 46.8% 30.9% 20.2% 9.6% 24.7% 22.5% 15.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/29/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##