* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072019 07/28/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 53 59 67 74 74 75 73 71 68 64 60 55 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 53 59 67 74 74 75 73 71 68 64 60 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 45 50 54 55 55 56 57 58 55 51 46 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 3 2 8 9 9 9 10 15 17 24 17 24 24 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 0 -1 1 6 8 1 7 2 -3 -6 -6 -7 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 8 334 330 311 305 326 317 300 311 2 354 333 338 313 304 288 286 SST (C) 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.6 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.3 26.9 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 150 150 151 150 152 156 152 149 149 135 140 135 129 131 128 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 70 73 72 73 74 73 69 71 68 64 61 68 65 66 65 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 13 14 16 17 19 21 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -7 -6 0 9 15 0 18 23 11 -18 -10 -23 -17 -16 0 -1 200 MB DIV 42 36 34 57 108 103 53 119 124 109 23 -2 5 11 3 8 3 700-850 TADV 4 6 2 0 0 -4 -6 -5 -5 -21 -3 -4 -3 -2 4 6 8 LAND (KM) 927 1010 1105 1219 1312 1457 1629 1780 1940 2120 2284 2282 1961 1641 1363 1133 914 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.7 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.2 110.0 111.8 113.4 115.0 117.8 120.4 123.0 125.7 128.4 131.2 133.9 136.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 17 16 15 13 13 13 13 13 14 15 14 13 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 36 28 18 17 26 17 32 46 17 15 14 4 27 9 2 8 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 34. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 12. 11. 10. 10. 10. 8. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 23. 29. 37. 44. 44. 45. 43. 41. 38. 34. 30. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 108.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072019 SEVEN 07/28/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.79 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.74 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 52% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 27.6% 20.7% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 24.4% 52.2% Logistic: 9.1% 43.0% 30.7% 19.1% 7.2% 29.0% 28.8% 26.8% Bayesian: 2.4% 29.3% 8.5% 2.2% 0.5% 7.9% 18.0% 4.6% Consensus: 7.7% 33.3% 20.0% 12.3% 2.6% 12.3% 23.7% 27.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 SEVEN 07/28/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##