* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/28/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 51 55 62 64 63 58 52 47 44 40 38 37 36 34 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 51 55 62 64 63 58 52 47 44 40 38 37 36 34 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 46 48 51 54 54 52 47 42 38 34 31 28 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 2 5 7 9 11 13 13 19 25 25 26 27 27 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 6 4 -2 -3 -1 1 4 6 1 0 0 0 1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 251 249 179 219 254 189 232 255 272 239 253 258 267 263 275 264 270 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.2 27.0 26.8 27.5 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.5 28.2 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 149 146 144 143 136 135 132 140 140 137 137 140 147 154 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 58 58 63 56 54 52 54 53 54 57 59 60 62 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 16 17 16 16 14 13 12 11 10 8 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 7 0 -1 17 18 7 -3 -5 -4 1 0 6 2 5 5 200 MB DIV 66 80 58 36 18 21 56 56 6 -7 -7 28 5 24 19 19 22 700-850 TADV -12 -11 -8 -6 -4 -2 -3 0 5 6 4 3 5 3 2 5 4 LAND (KM) 2396 2481 2404 2253 2101 1806 1522 1270 1019 777 535 338 221 344 436 507 684 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.6 132.1 133.5 134.9 136.3 139.0 141.6 143.9 146.2 148.5 151.0 153.6 156.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 17 14 12 13 19 19 6 6 4 10 11 20 22 20 27 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. 22. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. -14. -12. -11. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 22. 24. 23. 18. 12. 7. 4. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.0 130.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/28/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 46.5% 27.4% 16.9% 11.7% 17.1% 35.3% 15.5% Logistic: 54.4% 77.9% 70.8% 65.6% 16.4% 49.3% 15.7% 5.6% Bayesian: 23.9% 27.0% 10.0% 4.2% 0.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 31.0% 50.5% 36.1% 28.9% 9.6% 22.7% 17.2% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/28/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##