* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/28/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 51 56 65 71 73 75 71 67 62 57 51 47 43 39 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 51 56 65 71 73 75 71 67 62 57 51 47 43 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 43 46 54 63 70 74 73 68 61 54 48 42 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 1 2 1 2 2 6 6 6 8 11 22 23 30 30 33 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 3 4 -1 -6 -5 0 1 5 4 0 0 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 287 268 43 98 144 158 219 236 213 249 245 256 265 271 273 272 273 SST (C) 28.7 28.2 28.4 28.9 28.9 28.0 27.6 27.8 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 148 150 155 155 146 141 143 137 136 131 131 133 135 137 143 143 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 63 61 58 57 56 57 56 55 50 49 49 48 50 52 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 12 13 11 12 12 14 14 16 15 15 13 11 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -8 2 5 16 13 11 9 14 14 4 -7 -1 -8 -5 -5 0 -2 200 MB DIV 7 30 75 65 70 29 11 25 48 38 6 -1 -1 -6 0 0 15 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -8 -9 -9 -6 -2 -2 -3 -1 7 6 4 2 8 4 9 LAND (KM) 2051 2147 2249 2344 2426 2289 2006 1720 1446 1183 932 692 444 237 180 353 415 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.1 127.6 129.0 130.4 131.7 134.4 137.0 139.6 142.1 144.5 146.8 149.0 151.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 12 13 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 11 16 24 19 9 15 20 12 7 5 3 4 9 27 29 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 5. 6. 10. 9. 8. 5. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 21. 30. 36. 38. 40. 36. 32. 27. 22. 16. 12. 8. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.8 126.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/28/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 38.4% 22.2% 16.3% 11.5% 17.0% 33.6% 44.9% Logistic: 47.4% 80.6% 71.0% 65.9% 16.1% 52.2% 14.9% 16.4% Bayesian: 6.4% 23.4% 7.2% 2.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 22.2% 47.4% 33.5% 28.4% 9.4% 23.2% 16.3% 20.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/28/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##