* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042019 07/13/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 29 30 29 29 28 27 27 26 26 26 26 25 25 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 29 30 29 29 28 27 27 26 26 26 26 25 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 19 18 17 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 54 73 83 78 86 113 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.6 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.2 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 151 143 139 136 126 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 71 65 60 58 52 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 68 56 44 37 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 26 36 13 -7 -17 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -1 0 -2 -9 -9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 557 619 628 638 673 831 970 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.3 111.4 112.6 113.8 116.3 118.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 17 10 6 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26. 27. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.4 109.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042019 FOUR 07/13/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.73 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.18 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.16 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 9.7% 5.4% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 9.2% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.3% 1.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042019 FOUR 07/13/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##