* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARRY AL022019 07/13/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 59 58 51 50 46 42 39 39 39 38 38 37 37 36 V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 49 41 31 28 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 52 43 32 28 27 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 25 27 20 25 25 24 14 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 4 4 0 7 -3 7 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 358 350 359 335 326 310 281 282 277 347 335 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.3 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.3 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 168 166 168 170 160 159 158 158 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 145 141 139 140 144 131 130 129 127 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -51.4 -51.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 7 10 11 7 8 3 7 1 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 56 58 58 61 61 59 59 60 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 25 27 26 21 21 18 13 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -24 -23 -1 -11 -60 -59 -103 -110 -88 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 1 -8 34 40 23 89 12 -6 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 5 0 -2 4 -3 2 4 3 28 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 71 42 26 -7 -63 -188 -333 -456 -585 -731 -883 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.5 28.9 29.3 29.9 30.4 31.5 32.8 34.0 35.4 36.9 38.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.9 91.2 91.5 91.8 92.0 92.3 92.5 92.5 92.1 91.3 90.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 33 37 20 5 6 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. -3. -5. -10. -17. -23. -26. -27. -27. -26. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 4. 3. -4. -5. -9. -13. -16. -16. -16. -17. -17. -18. -18. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.5 90.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 BARRY 07/13/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.29 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.53 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 12.6% 8.4% 6.5% 5.8% 8.3% 7.4% 9.9% Logistic: 1.9% 3.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.4% 3.3% 2.4% 2.0% 3.2% 2.8% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 BARRY 07/13/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 BARRY 07/13/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 57 49 41 31 28 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 18HR AGO 55 54 54 46 38 28 25 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 55 52 51 43 35 25 22 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 37 27 24 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT