* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARRY AL022019 07/12/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 58 59 59 54 50 45 45 38 39 38 35 35 34 35 35 V (KT) LAND 55 58 58 49 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 62 54 45 33 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 19 24 26 22 32 25 25 12 15 8 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 4 2 2 3 3 0 3 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 5 349 348 349 339 313 279 291 280 300 346 330 355 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.8 30.3 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.5 30.0 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 167 162 164 170 162 161 157 158 160 169 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 140 135 136 144 134 131 128 128 128 136 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 7 6 10 8 9 4 7 2 8 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 54 56 58 56 60 54 57 57 63 59 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 24 26 27 23 22 19 17 11 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 15 -17 -18 2 -42 -22 -110 -73 -133 -69 -115 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 37 -8 -12 26 10 42 35 10 0 20 -18 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -12 -3 5 0 -8 7 3 1 11 8 5 21 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 72 33 16 -7 -33 -164 -299 -432 -558 -684 -798 -918 -950 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.7 30.1 31.3 32.5 33.8 35.2 36.5 37.8 39.0 40.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.6 90.9 91.2 91.5 91.8 92.2 92.4 92.4 91.9 91.0 89.6 87.9 86.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 32 33 24 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 2. -2. -4. -9. -13. -22. -24. -28. -30. -29. -28. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 4. 4. -1. -5. -10. -10. -17. -16. -17. -20. -20. -21. -20. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.5 90.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 BARRY 07/12/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.33 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.51 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 13.1% 8.8% 6.8% 5.8% 8.2% 7.4% 9.2% Logistic: 1.8% 3.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.6% 3.4% 2.4% 2.0% 3.1% 2.7% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 BARRY 07/12/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 BARRY 07/12/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 58 49 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 55 54 54 45 38 28 24 23 23 23 23 24 25 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 55 52 51 42 35 25 21 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 38 28 24 23 23 23 23 24 25 26 26 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT