* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022019 07/10/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 41 48 56 58 65 64 64 62 63 62 58 59 56 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 41 48 56 58 65 50 35 29 28 27 27 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 35 40 44 46 48 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 14 15 16 18 19 21 17 25 19 30 20 11 3 8 4 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 2 0 0 4 2 1 0 -3 3 3 0 0 -1 8 SHEAR DIR 9 34 5 5 8 352 348 329 318 305 278 284 322 341 62 355 13 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.9 31.1 31.4 31.2 30.7 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 166 164 161 160 162 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 146 145 146 150 158 162 168 163 152 140 136 133 131 131 132 129 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 8 10 7 10 7 9 7 9 6 10 7 13 8 17 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 62 63 59 58 54 56 50 52 51 53 53 54 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 14 17 20 23 22 26 24 23 19 16 13 10 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 7 13 4 0 24 31 27 -11 13 -26 10 -24 18 -18 0 -29 16 200 MB DIV 40 53 16 14 36 39 25 4 38 48 40 -7 4 -2 -1 18 -3 700-850 TADV -1 1 -1 -1 -2 0 -4 2 5 -6 -4 -3 -9 1 -4 26 28 LAND (KM) 226 195 181 169 171 178 151 130 50 -46 -160 -265 -392 -526 -699 -905 -999 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.4 29.2 30.2 31.2 32.1 33.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.6 88.1 88.6 89.1 90.2 91.1 92.0 92.8 93.2 93.6 94.1 94.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 48 46 40 43 47 41 40 35 40 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 412 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 34. 39. 43. 44. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -6. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 12. 16. 15. 12. 5. 1. -3. -8. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 16. 23. 31. 33. 40. 39. 39. 37. 38. 37. 33. 34. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.3 87.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 TWO 07/10/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.84 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 15.6% 10.3% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 23.2% 13.3% 5.9% 2.3% 10.1% 17.2% 13.1% Bayesian: 1.5% 4.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 5.1% 14.4% 8.2% 4.3% 0.8% 3.5% 9.5% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 TWO 07/10/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 TWO 07/10/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 35 41 48 56 58 65 50 35 29 28 27 27 27 29 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 37 44 52 54 61 46 31 25 24 23 23 23 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 30 37 45 47 54 39 24 18 17 16 16 16 18 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 28 36 38 45 30 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT