* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032019 07/07/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 39 36 33 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 39 36 33 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 38 33 30 26 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 4 9 12 14 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 1 3 1 0 2 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 304 309 319 303 338 335 303 303 306 294 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.5 26.4 25.1 24.4 24.5 24.2 23.4 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 132 127 126 112 105 105 103 94 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 55 53 49 44 42 38 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 17 15 13 13 11 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 5 -6 -11 -9 -23 -22 -26 -38 -42 -68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 56 49 40 50 14 -23 -21 -25 1 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 5 0 2 3 4 3 0 2 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1007 1033 1037 1038 1044 1051 1070 1075 1115 1178 1264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.3 19.3 20.1 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.6 118.4 119.0 119.6 120.6 121.4 122.2 123.2 124.3 125.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -22. -26. -30. -31. -31. -32. -32. -33. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.4 116.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032019 COSME 07/07/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.49 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.40 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.05 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 20.1% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 7.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032019 COSME 07/07/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##