* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/06/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 32 29 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 36 32 29 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 32 28 25 21 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 26 31 33 38 34 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 8 3 -1 -2 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 255 264 274 289 298 305 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.8 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.5 27.1 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 123 125 125 125 131 138 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 5 5 5 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 35 34 35 33 31 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 15 14 13 12 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -4 -5 -5 -9 2 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -19 -2 -25 -24 -34 -48 -27 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 -8 -9 -7 -10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1567 1395 1224 1038 853 477 200 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.2 17.9 17.7 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.9 141.5 143.2 145.0 146.8 150.6 154.2 157.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 17 18 18 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -20. -25. -29. -31. -32. -33. -33. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -14. -20. -27. -37. -45. -50. -54. -57. -57. -58. -57. -59. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.6 139.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/06/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 378.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.96 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.19 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/06/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##