* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/06/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 32 29 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 36 32 29 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 32 28 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 27 26 31 34 38 33 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 9 8 4 -3 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 252 253 257 271 293 301 296 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 25.6 25.8 25.8 25.8 26.5 26.8 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 121 123 124 124 131 134 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 41 36 35 35 32 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 15 14 12 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 2 -7 -9 -9 -17 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -7 -1 -28 -23 -42 -39 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 -2 1 1 -5 -8 -7 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1723 1556 1389 1212 1035 665 314 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.7 18.6 18.6 18.5 18.3 18.1 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.4 140.0 141.6 143.3 145.0 148.6 152.2 155.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -14. -21. -26. -30. -32. -34. -34. -35. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -15. -23. -31. -40. -48. -53. -57. -60. -60. -61. -61. -62. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.7 138.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/06/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 351.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/06/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##