* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP032019 07/06/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 50 53 54 52 49 42 37 36 35 32 31 29 25 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 46 50 53 54 52 49 42 37 36 35 32 31 29 25 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 41 43 44 44 43 41 38 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 14 15 8 1 7 6 3 6 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 2 1 -1 -1 1 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 321 332 350 57 338 358 360 301 307 306 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.8 28.4 27.5 27.3 26.9 25.9 24.6 24.5 24.3 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 150 140 137 132 121 106 105 103 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 62 60 55 51 50 44 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 15 16 16 15 13 13 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 19 19 16 10 4 -2 -14 -10 -12 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 98 81 80 84 42 25 20 -19 -9 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -12 -2 6 0 1 1 2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 987 971 974 1009 1060 1094 1108 1106 1090 1051 1016 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.6 18.6 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.6 114.0 115.3 116.5 117.7 119.5 120.7 121.4 121.8 122.1 122.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 13 13 11 8 7 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 28 15 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 19. 17. 14. 7. 2. 1. -0. -3. -4. -6. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.3 112.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032019 INVEST 07/06/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032019 INVEST 07/06/19 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING