* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/04/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 79 67 56 47 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 79 67 56 47 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 79 68 58 49 35 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 22 23 25 30 31 35 35 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 12 13 7 8 13 5 8 7 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 224 221 232 239 243 245 246 260 299 319 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.2 25.5 25.2 25.2 25.5 26.2 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 117 117 118 116 119 116 117 120 128 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -53.1 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 56 56 52 50 41 39 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 27 24 24 20 18 13 11 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 38 28 15 9 12 -2 -23 -23 -22 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 66 44 6 0 -5 4 -14 -17 -31 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 16 13 5 12 28 7 4 -4 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2029 2056 2087 2146 2176 1918 1634 1320 976 632 283 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.0 18.9 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.4 131.3 132.1 133.1 134.1 136.5 139.2 142.2 145.5 148.8 152.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 15 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -23. -28. -31. -33. -36. -38. -40. -42. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -11. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. -22. -24. -25. -26. -25. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -21. -27. -31. -32. -30. -27. -25. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -23. -34. -43. -60. -71. -83. -93. -98. -99.-101.-101.-101.-100.-100. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.4 130.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/04/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 483.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/04/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##