* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/04/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 91 82 72 62 44 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 91 82 72 62 44 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 90 79 67 58 42 31 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 17 16 16 19 26 27 32 39 26 21 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 13 16 11 14 12 7 6 7 4 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 228 228 225 227 234 245 240 244 270 304 309 320 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.3 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.3 25.5 25.7 25.0 25.8 26.2 26.5 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 127 117 117 119 117 119 122 115 123 128 131 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.9 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 56 55 53 50 44 41 40 42 40 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 30 29 26 22 20 17 13 10 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 32 35 28 15 13 8 -10 -10 -25 -4 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 83 71 61 36 6 3 1 0 -17 -23 -20 -16 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 13 12 12 5 24 10 13 -6 -5 -6 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2019 2041 2067 2103 2143 2057 1792 1489 1164 832 501 183 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.1 19.1 19.0 18.8 18.7 18.5 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.6 130.5 131.3 132.2 133.1 135.2 137.7 140.6 143.7 146.9 150.1 153.4 156.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 11 13 14 15 15 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -22. -29. -35. -40. -43. -46. -46. -48. -50. -53. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -16. -18. -18. -17. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -19. -28. -31. -32. -34. -33. -30. -27. -25. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -28. -38. -56. -70. -81. -93.-100.-101.-104.-103.-103.-102.-102.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 15.7 129.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/04/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 508.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/04/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##