* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/03/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 135 130 125 117 99 79 61 45 33 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 135 135 130 125 117 99 79 61 45 33 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 135 131 125 116 107 89 68 50 36 26 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 6 7 15 20 25 31 32 34 33 25 20 21 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 3 7 15 8 13 4 3 3 0 0 -5 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 47 22 206 192 225 243 229 234 242 250 257 276 282 296 299 301 286 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.5 26.0 25.2 25.4 25.2 25.2 25.3 26.1 26.7 27.1 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 139 137 135 129 124 116 118 116 117 118 127 133 137 143 146 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -52.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 62 61 56 53 55 49 47 43 39 39 37 36 37 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 35 32 35 34 34 30 27 23 19 15 12 10 9 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 17 19 23 30 35 19 20 26 13 -1 -15 -30 -21 -13 -1 -5 1 200 MB DIV 115 110 70 92 87 65 40 5 -5 -22 -27 -24 -38 -19 -34 -30 -32 700-850 TADV -8 -4 0 6 10 13 20 12 18 8 -1 -3 -3 -6 -5 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1855 1894 1939 1976 1999 2038 2120 2146 1889 1605 1300 976 632 291 23 221 289 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.2 16.4 17.5 18.4 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.0 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.1 126.1 127.0 127.9 128.8 130.5 132.4 134.4 136.8 139.5 142.4 145.5 148.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 15 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 6 6 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 13 34 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -15. -25. -37. -50. -60. -70. -77. -82. -83. -84. -85. -88. -90. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -9. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. -0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -8. -14. -20. -24. -27. -27. -26. -26. -25. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -5. -10. -18. -36. -56. -74. -90.-102.-113.-124.-128.-129.-130.-128.-125. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 13.3 125.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/03/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 578.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.4% 6.9% 5.3% 3.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 2.3% 1.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/03/19 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##