* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/01/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 72 82 91 105 111 111 101 91 81 68 57 47 39 30 22 V (KT) LAND 55 63 72 82 91 105 111 111 101 91 81 68 57 47 39 30 22 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 69 76 84 100 111 115 108 96 81 66 53 43 35 28 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 9 14 14 6 3 5 8 13 15 18 14 16 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 -1 -3 -3 -4 -2 -1 4 9 7 15 9 14 13 10 SHEAR DIR 332 348 10 67 69 52 51 325 238 234 247 236 231 247 245 261 271 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.7 29.0 28.6 27.9 27.7 27.1 26.2 26.2 26.2 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 155 153 152 155 150 143 141 135 126 125 125 123 124 127 126 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.7 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 71 71 68 64 58 53 48 44 41 38 35 33 34 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 25 27 30 31 33 31 31 30 27 23 20 17 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 6 9 7 12 20 26 48 56 72 66 70 62 64 42 26 21 22 200 MB DIV 110 119 109 124 118 113 117 74 69 43 27 6 19 9 -7 -23 -33 700-850 TADV -16 -12 -9 -6 -6 -4 -5 -2 3 7 2 2 5 0 0 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 1419 1457 1510 1573 1645 1751 1849 1941 2038 2097 2204 2204 1988 1780 1531 1240 946 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.6 14.3 15.2 15.9 16.4 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.1 116.5 117.9 119.2 120.5 122.7 124.7 126.5 128.3 130.1 132.1 134.2 136.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 10 10 11 10 10 11 12 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 22 28 29 61 15 8 9 7 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 71.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 13. 12. 11. 6. 1. -2. -6. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 20. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 27. 36. 50. 56. 56. 46. 36. 26. 13. 2. -8. -16. -25. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.1 115.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/01/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 17.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 16.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 10.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.77 16.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -14.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 16.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 14.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 90% is 7.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 82% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 12.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 65% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 70% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 52% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 46.7% 90.1% 81.7% 68.2% 51.3% 64.6% 70.4% 52.3% Logistic: 57.9% 78.2% 64.6% 58.6% 36.6% 16.9% 3.3% 4.5% Bayesian: 72.5% 60.6% 67.0% 55.9% 14.1% 16.4% 9.7% 0.1% Consensus: 59.0% 76.3% 71.1% 60.9% 34.0% 32.6% 27.8% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/01/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##