* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 06/30/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 57 65 81 93 98 100 94 86 75 65 55 47 37 27 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 57 65 81 93 98 100 94 86 75 65 55 47 37 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 49 52 62 78 94 103 98 85 72 59 48 38 30 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 9 6 12 12 4 4 7 9 16 19 18 18 27 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 4 0 0 -5 -8 -3 -2 1 6 9 4 11 10 13 10 SHEAR DIR 307 307 317 341 9 75 55 43 279 245 252 246 247 236 234 246 263 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.4 29.0 28.3 28.8 28.3 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.4 26.0 26.2 25.9 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 165 161 156 148 153 147 141 138 135 127 124 126 124 124 123 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 71 70 71 68 61 55 50 47 46 43 40 38 34 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 20 24 27 28 32 32 30 28 25 22 19 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 13 17 9 7 7 26 38 46 63 73 63 62 55 63 42 16 7 200 MB DIV 142 162 129 96 90 126 134 119 90 76 54 24 3 2 11 -10 -18 700-850 TADV -11 -11 -13 -13 -9 -5 -5 -7 0 5 4 5 4 5 -1 -1 -8 LAND (KM) 1183 1267 1368 1418 1473 1600 1723 1818 1910 1991 2051 2137 2265 2102 1824 1508 1190 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.6 15.2 15.7 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.4 113.0 114.6 116.1 117.6 120.1 122.4 124.5 126.3 128.0 129.5 131.1 133.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 10 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 32 25 24 21 19 18 47 13 6 7 8 1 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 65.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 22. 23. 22. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 21. 18. 14. 10. 6. 2. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 18. 10. 3. -2. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 25. 41. 53. 58. 60. 54. 46. 35. 25. 15. 7. -3. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.7 111.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 06/30/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.78 10.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.35 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.81 8.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 65% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 60% is 12.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 47.9% 32.8% 19.4% 12.2% 18.7% 65.0% 60.4% Logistic: 10.9% 39.6% 25.0% 16.4% 2.4% 8.6% 4.7% 7.2% Bayesian: 14.3% 50.7% 52.5% 28.5% 1.1% 2.0% 1.8% 0.1% Consensus: 12.8% 46.1% 36.8% 21.4% 5.2% 9.7% 23.8% 22.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 06/30/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##