* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012019 06/27/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 54 54 52 44 36 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 53 54 54 52 44 36 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 53 54 52 50 42 33 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 7 11 14 14 17 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 2 2 2 7 3 6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 135 202 237 200 228 248 242 242 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.0 26.4 25.7 24.9 24.2 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 145 145 128 120 111 104 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 67 65 66 65 60 51 44 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 11 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -14 -15 -14 -15 -20 -21 -31 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 40 40 26 19 26 12 1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 7 9 10 10 17 14 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 853 895 895 902 926 982 1029 1115 1185 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.6 18.5 19.1 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.5 113.6 114.7 115.8 117.8 119.6 121.2 122.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 9 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -12. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 2. -6. -14. -24. -33. -36. -37. -36. -35. -35. -33. -32. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.8 111.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012019 ALVIN 06/27/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.0% 35.6% 25.1% 17.1% 11.8% 13.8% 13.9% 0.0% Logistic: 8.4% 14.2% 11.2% 3.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.2% 16.7% 12.1% 6.9% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012019 ALVIN 06/27/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##