* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012019 06/27/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 53 53 51 45 37 28 26 26 27 29 29 31 31 31 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 53 53 51 45 37 28 26 26 27 29 29 31 31 31 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 51 53 53 49 41 33 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 3 5 12 10 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 3 1 2 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 95 123 137 193 196 234 227 238 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.0 26.6 25.8 25.3 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 149 145 130 121 116 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 65 65 63 62 54 44 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 13 12 10 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -7 -9 -8 -5 -12 -9 -8 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 33 24 28 31 18 7 -16 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 4 8 9 9 13 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 823 900 950 953 972 1028 1074 1152 1246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.6 17.5 18.1 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.8 112.9 114.0 115.1 117.2 119.1 120.8 122.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 21 24 16 9 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -11. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 8. 6. 0. -8. -17. -19. -19. -18. -16. -16. -14. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.4 110.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012019 ALVIN 06/27/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.70 7.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 41.8% 32.6% 21.7% 12.8% 15.9% 16.8% 10.9% Logistic: 9.9% 27.4% 20.1% 8.3% 4.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.2% 23.4% 17.6% 10.0% 5.8% 5.8% 5.6% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012019 ALVIN 06/27/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##