* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012019 06/26/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 52 55 58 55 49 40 34 29 30 32 32 34 34 34 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 52 55 58 55 49 40 34 29 30 32 32 34 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 50 52 54 51 44 37 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 8 7 5 2 5 5 7 7 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -2 1 1 6 3 5 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 93 94 111 150 163 196 238 210 230 249 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 27.3 27.0 26.2 25.7 25.7 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 150 150 150 137 134 125 119 119 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 64 66 64 64 59 48 42 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 12 10 7 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -4 -8 -9 -7 -1 -13 0 -15 -18 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 53 32 20 24 30 13 -1 -21 -12 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 2 0 1 5 7 7 9 11 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 762 851 948 985 1012 1062 1142 1204 1297 1388 1487 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.5 16.2 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.8 111.0 112.2 113.3 114.4 116.4 118.3 120.0 121.6 123.0 124.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 16 30 34 18 4 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -7. -12. -14. -15. -14. -13. -12. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 15. 9. 0. -6. -11. -10. -8. -8. -6. -6. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.3 109.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012019 ALVIN 06/26/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 9.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.77 8.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -6.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 42.7% 33.6% 22.7% 13.8% 17.0% 22.9% 13.4% Logistic: 6.0% 24.5% 15.3% 5.4% 4.1% 2.2% 0.3% 0.8% Bayesian: 1.3% 3.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 23.6% 16.5% 9.5% 6.0% 6.4% 7.8% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012019 ALVIN 06/26/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##