* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012019 06/26/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 47 49 49 44 36 28 21 22 23 24 25 24 23 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 46 47 49 49 44 36 28 21 22 23 24 25 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 42 42 39 34 29 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 7 7 6 7 7 9 13 17 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -5 -4 -2 0 0 3 1 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 129 106 109 146 177 170 206 187 225 257 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.3 28.0 27.7 28.1 27.1 26.7 26.0 25.5 25.2 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 148 145 142 146 135 130 123 118 114 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 63 63 62 60 53 42 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 12 11 11 10 7 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -5 -13 -16 -27 -23 -21 -19 -22 -21 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 35 38 21 18 20 15 13 -15 -20 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -5 1 1 4 11 8 9 9 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 641 726 824 883 905 963 1052 1121 1205 1323 1426 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.0 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.8 110.1 111.3 112.5 113.6 115.7 117.6 119.4 121.1 122.8 124.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 10 11 11 12 3 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 18. 19. 19. 18. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -13. -14. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 12. 14. 14. 9. 1. -7. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -11. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 108.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012019 ALVIN 06/26/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.79 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 37.7% 22.7% 16.5% 11.7% 15.7% 17.3% 13.2% Logistic: 17.1% 42.6% 31.2% 8.5% 13.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.5% 27.1% 18.0% 8.3% 8.4% 5.8% 5.8% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012019 ALVIN 06/26/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##