* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012019 06/26/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 40 42 41 35 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 40 42 41 35 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 35 34 30 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 4 3 7 8 9 13 14 15 23 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 0 1 5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 133 149 201 173 184 210 193 210 226 266 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.3 26.9 27.3 25.8 25.3 24.9 24.4 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 146 138 133 137 121 116 111 106 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 63 61 60 59 60 59 52 44 37 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 11 8 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 1 -11 -23 -24 -25 -19 -17 -7 -14 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 46 37 33 17 16 22 4 -18 -7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -6 2 5 13 12 9 10 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 519 594 690 778 790 847 937 998 1083 1188 1288 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.6 109.0 110.3 111.6 112.8 115.0 116.9 118.6 120.3 121.9 123.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 11 9 4 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. -0. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 11. 5. -3. -12. -21. -21. -20. -20. -20. -21. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.4 107.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012019 ONE 06/26/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.73 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.74 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 31.8% 20.8% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 0.0% Logistic: 8.8% 23.0% 19.2% 3.1% 6.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 18.4% 13.4% 6.1% 2.2% 0.1% 5.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012019 ONE 06/26/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##