* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 30 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 30 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 32 28 26 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 26 25 24 24 28 32 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 231 240 236 228 222 218 221 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.3 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 141 141 139 136 134 134 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.6 -55.9 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 6 7 5 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 32 31 30 30 30 30 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -33 -43 -48 -40 -38 -34 -29 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -22 -31 -20 -9 -9 35 33 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 4 3 4 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 217 263 312 368 402 419 458 505 559 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.2 19.1 19.0 19.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.8 108.4 109.0 109.6 110.8 111.7 112.5 113.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 13 21 21 14 7 6 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -11. -19. -24. -28. -30. -31. -31. -32. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -11. -16. -21. -27. -32. -36. -39. -41. -42. -43. -44. -46. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.0 107.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 353.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 92.6 62.3 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##