* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 36 33 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 36 33 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 41 38 35 30 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 33 34 30 27 26 26 29 33 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 3 3 6 4 1 -1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 219 231 237 233 238 233 226 217 222 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 141 140 141 141 136 134 132 129 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.2 -55.1 -55.3 -55.3 -55.4 -55.5 -55.7 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 7 8 5 6 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 42 38 36 33 33 34 35 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 5 -22 -29 -42 -38 -39 -36 -43 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 -1 -12 -27 -20 -23 -6 -18 17 32 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 4 1 4 2 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 133 143 163 194 224 329 367 395 461 544 637 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.5 19.3 19.1 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.1 106.5 107.0 107.5 108.7 109.9 111.1 112.2 113.3 114.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 10 9 9 12 23 7 5 5 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -25. -30. -32. -34. -34. -36. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -23. -31. -37. -42. -45. -47. -47. -46. -46. -48. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.3 105.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 301.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 68.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##