* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 45 41 35 29 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 45 41 35 29 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 47 44 37 31 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 26 25 30 32 24 23 23 21 25 31 31 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 1 4 0 6 5 0 0 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 239 225 218 228 238 222 240 240 231 229 236 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.8 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 26.7 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 147 143 141 140 144 144 142 139 137 129 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.5 -55.4 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 -55.3 -55.8 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 56 54 53 52 46 40 37 38 37 36 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 12 11 9 8 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 5 9 13 22 -20 -19 -37 -26 -43 -41 -56 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 43 39 17 0 -20 -2 -26 -8 0 32 44 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 5 3 4 4 2 5 6 6 4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 338 300 260 248 240 287 376 473 527 548 595 670 753 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.8 105.8 105.8 106.1 106.3 107.2 108.3 109.5 110.7 111.9 113.1 114.4 115.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 18 14 11 10 16 16 12 10 9 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. -25. -25. -26. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -9. -15. -21. -28. -32. -36. -39. -41. -41. -39. -38. -38. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.3 105.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.57 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/04/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##