* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 48 44 42 34 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 48 44 42 34 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 52 51 49 46 39 31 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 24 26 25 30 30 22 24 20 22 27 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 1 2 3 2 4 5 3 0 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 234 233 213 211 233 232 240 246 235 231 234 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.6 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 151 149 147 140 141 145 146 142 139 134 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.8 -55.3 -55.0 -54.9 -55.3 -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -55.4 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 6 8 6 7 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 57 56 54 52 47 41 39 39 39 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 14 14 11 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 13 8 12 10 -2 -28 -26 -26 -33 -43 -41 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 48 64 59 43 11 -5 -20 -21 -25 14 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 4 3 2 4 0 4 4 6 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 385 342 299 275 251 255 317 410 518 548 579 603 653 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.5 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.9 105.7 105.6 105.7 105.8 106.4 107.4 108.7 110.0 111.2 112.4 113.4 114.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 4 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 21 22 21 18 12 12 18 16 12 9 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -19. -22. -24. -24. -25. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -8. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -6. -8. -16. -23. -31. -37. -39. -41. -43. -45. -42. -39. -38. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.8 105.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##