* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 31 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 31 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 35 33 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 15 19 23 26 32 25 18 11 14 22 31 34 42 42 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 0 -1 -1 0 0 3 7 6 0 -3 -1 2 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 265 261 255 243 242 227 239 251 244 252 207 230 244 242 236 233 234 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 148 147 146 142 139 141 146 146 144 140 136 134 132 132 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -54.4 -54.1 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -55.2 -55.3 -55.1 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 62 61 60 56 51 43 37 35 35 38 37 34 31 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 21 17 15 13 10 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -8 -11 -6 6 11 2 -28 -1 -23 -17 -31 -25 -41 -35 -25 -31 200 MB DIV 78 63 66 58 63 44 20 -13 -7 -17 -8 -15 -6 14 1 6 -1 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 2 6 3 3 3 1 4 5 5 2 2 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 622 571 522 470 418 339 297 283 324 416 512 571 556 509 468 429 401 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.6 17.1 17.5 17.6 17.5 17.5 17.8 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.9 107.5 107.1 106.8 106.6 106.4 106.5 106.8 107.4 108.4 109.5 110.7 111.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 4 5 5 5 3 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 20 20 18 14 11 13 18 16 14 11 8 7 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 24. 25. 26. 27. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -18. -21. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -3. -8. -12. -14. -16. -16. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -21. -25. -26. -25. -24. -23. -22. -23. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.5 107.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.06 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 12.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.4% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/03/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##