* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/30/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 88 87 84 84 79 68 52 43 40 35 25 21 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 90 88 87 84 84 79 68 52 43 40 35 25 21 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 92 90 86 83 80 76 60 46 41 42 44 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 20 17 11 19 28 44 55 49 46 30 15 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 5 2 5 24 14 14 4 -1 -2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 269 251 234 211 202 205 185 185 184 163 181 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.7 25.9 24.6 24.8 23.5 22.8 18.8 13.8 11.2 10.7 9.8 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 114 104 107 100 97 82 73 71 70 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 106 101 94 98 93 90 77 71 69 68 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.0 -55.9 -55.3 -55.6 -54.9 -53.2 -52.7 -52.4 -51.2 -48.7 -47.8 -49.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 -0.1 1.0 2.6 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.6 3.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 56 56 51 46 46 60 63 64 70 72 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 30 32 32 39 43 44 40 39 39 35 31 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 57 52 65 89 141 236 280 256 291 346 350 296 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 59 70 98 93 29 29 55 84 81 82 86 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 21 27 25 17 0 -9 -52 -91 -110 -52 2 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1214 1318 1423 1599 1603 1291 912 872 1244 1264 775 552 382 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.9 28.8 30.1 31.4 35.1 39.5 44.2 48.3 52.0 55.3 58.4 61.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.4 58.0 57.7 56.6 55.6 52.2 47.7 42.5 36.1 28.8 21.8 15.3 8.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 13 16 20 26 30 30 30 28 25 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -18. -28. -37. -47. -53. -59. -64. -68. -70. -71. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -14. -18. -22. -23. -22. -21. -21. -22. -23. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -9. -10. -9. -7. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 8. 14. 16. 12. 10. 9. 4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 17. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -3. -6. -6. -11. -22. -38. -47. -50. -55. -65. -69. -73. -76. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 26.9 58.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 504.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 9( 29) 9( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 90 88 87 84 84 79 68 52 43 40 35 25 21 17 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 87 86 83 83 78 67 51 42 39 34 24 20 16 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 82 82 77 66 50 41 38 33 23 19 15 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 77 77 72 61 45 36 33 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 71 66 55 39 30 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 90 81 75 72 72 67 56 40 31 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 90 88 79 73 69 64 53 37 28 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS