* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILLA EP242018 10/22/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 141 138 131 122 105 74 58 48 45 41 37 33 33 32 34 37 V (KT) LAND 135 141 138 131 122 105 60 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 135 138 131 122 113 91 55 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 14 10 10 13 10 23 35 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -3 -2 0 6 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 229 221 201 195 233 223 255 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.4 28.5 28.5 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 148 151 153 159 151 151 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 6 6 4 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 65 66 66 66 64 57 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 25 24 23 19 5 8 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 7 18 21 13 18 51 44 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 64 59 56 66 94 77 35 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 1 0 1 0 3 37 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 278 252 226 187 160 94 -108 -436 -252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.5 19.0 19.6 20.1 21.3 23.0 25.0 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.2 107.3 107.3 107.2 106.4 104.8 102.4 100.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 9 13 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 16 23 35 43 29 14 9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -11. -17. -27. -38. -49. -56. -62. -65. -65. -65. -66. -68. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -11. -9. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 11. 15. 14. 11. 6. -0. -7. -10. -9. -10. -12. -15. -14. -14. -14. -11. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -20. -21. -19. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 3. -4. -13. -30. -61. -77. -87. -90. -94. -98.-102.-102.-103.-101. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 17.9 107.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP242018 WILLA 10/22/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.94 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 441.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.7% 4.9% 3.8% 3.3% 2.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 1.7% 1.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 WILLA 10/22/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##