* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILLA EP242018 10/21/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 104 109 111 112 106 96 72 61 51 40 36 34 31 29 27 26 V (KT) LAND 95 104 109 111 112 106 96 72 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 95 103 107 107 104 96 84 69 39 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 7 9 12 15 28 26 42 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 2 1 5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 171 156 171 214 207 190 186 206 230 231 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.4 29.5 28.4 28.2 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 145 146 148 152 158 160 149 147 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 7 6 7 5 5 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 67 64 61 63 60 54 50 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 25 25 25 26 24 20 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -7 2 6 15 25 35 71 69 29 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 106 113 74 67 64 72 90 80 26 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 -2 -4 16 0 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 349 329 317 294 271 206 156 8 -223 -456 -250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.9 21.1 22.6 24.1 25.7 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.2 107.4 107.5 107.6 107.6 107.0 105.9 104.3 102.1 100.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 10 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 14 13 15 20 36 39 29 16 18 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -11. -16. -19. -23. -24. -24. -24. -24. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -15. -16. -18. -20. -20. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -16. -18. -19. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 14. 16. 17. 11. 1. -23. -34. -44. -55. -59. -61. -64. -66. -68. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 16.8 106.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP242018 WILLA 10/21/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.21 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 10.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.74 8.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 6.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 6.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 55% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 55.4% 43.7% 36.0% 29.5% 19.7% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 41.0% 33.2% 24.1% 19.8% 13.9% 9.7% 5.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 46.1% 20.6% 17.8% 17.0% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 47.5% 32.5% 26.0% 22.1% 12.5% 9.3% 1.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 WILLA 10/21/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##