* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILLA EP242018 10/21/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 87 95 100 102 103 95 75 54 44 31 28 26 25 23 22 22 V (KT) LAND 80 87 95 100 102 103 95 75 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 80 88 94 97 98 93 83 68 44 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 9 9 8 7 11 23 28 43 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -3 -2 -1 -1 3 2 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 171 180 175 196 223 205 194 188 235 232 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.8 29.2 29.6 28.4 28.4 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 146 145 147 151 155 161 150 150 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 8 6 8 3 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 71 67 62 63 60 56 53 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 25 27 27 26 22 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -20 -14 -4 0 30 31 60 73 37 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 114 103 69 68 53 73 84 46 25 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -5 11 -1 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 369 346 329 309 294 233 156 82 -142 -488 -262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.7 18.2 19.3 20.4 21.7 23.5 25.8 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.6 106.9 107.1 107.3 107.5 107.6 107.2 106.4 104.8 102.4 100.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 9 14 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 16 14 13 15 29 47 31 17 18 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. -2. -6. -14. -15. -17. -18. -20. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -12. -24. -24. -24. -22. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 20. 22. 23. 15. -5. -26. -36. -49. -52. -54. -55. -57. -58. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.4 106.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP242018 WILLA 10/21/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.34 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 12.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.72 10.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 9.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -9.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 8.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 9.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 63% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 4.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 62.6% 60.7% 51.1% 44.4% 32.5% 25.6% 16.4% 10.9% Logistic: 43.2% 54.3% 39.7% 35.1% 34.2% 23.5% 8.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 51.8% 36.0% 32.7% 28.4% 9.5% 4.5% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 52.5% 50.3% 41.2% 36.0% 25.4% 17.9% 8.5% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 WILLA 10/21/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##