* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICENTE EP232018 10/21/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 46 48 51 54 58 59 61 62 64 65 65 66 67 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 46 48 51 54 58 59 61 62 64 65 65 66 67 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 44 45 45 45 46 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 12 13 17 13 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 2 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 16 22 18 4 12 11 21 39 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.6 29.7 28.9 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 152 155 155 160 161 152 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 6 7 6 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 79 80 78 76 68 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 3 3 3 2 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -21 -21 -23 24 26 18 0 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 35 42 40 48 75 103 98 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 1 0 0 0 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 137 135 160 161 175 165 134 64 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.4 97.2 98.1 99.0 100.6 102.0 103.1 104.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 12 15 19 21 28 29 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 14. 16. 17. 19. 20. 20. 21. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.6 95.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP232018 VICENTE 10/21/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 20.7% 16.2% 12.0% 8.3% 10.8% 15.4% 16.1% Logistic: 0.9% 5.0% 1.5% 0.9% 0.3% 1.4% 3.2% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 3.5% 8.9% 6.0% 4.3% 2.9% 4.1% 6.2% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP232018 VICENTE 10/21/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##