* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILLA EP242018 10/21/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 65 77 87 94 106 105 89 65 56 47 38 32 31 30 29 28 V (KT) LAND 55 65 77 87 94 106 105 89 65 56 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 65 75 83 91 99 97 84 71 66 56 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 3 4 4 3 6 11 18 26 36 41 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -7 -4 -3 -2 3 1 0 -2 0 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 90 117 121 166 142 184 174 166 197 219 218 233 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.4 29.3 28.4 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 151 151 149 148 149 153 158 157 148 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -51.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.6 -52.5 -53.2 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 8 6 8 6 8 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 72 72 72 67 60 57 48 42 41 47 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 22 24 23 26 25 16 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -14 -18 -16 -11 1 18 23 41 56 15 -8 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 110 110 112 106 81 64 75 70 8 38 32 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 -4 -3 3 1 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 411 414 408 387 371 354 329 287 211 136 -22 -223 -423 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.4 18.2 19.0 20.1 21.5 22.8 24.1 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.2 106.6 106.8 107.1 107.6 107.9 108.0 107.7 106.9 105.7 104.3 102.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 7 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 20 20 19 19 17 17 25 35 31 24 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 74.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. -2. -7. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 5. 7. 7. -1. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 10. 15. 22. 21. 12. 3. -3. -8. -12. -14. -14. -13. -13. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 22. 32. 39. 51. 50. 34. 10. 1. -8. -17. -23. -24. -25. -26. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.5 105.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP242018 WILLA 10/21/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 18.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 20.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.90 22.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 16.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -17.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 18.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 14.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 73% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 100% is 8.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 99% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 97% is 15.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 78% is 18.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 78% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 73% is 12.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 72.5% 100.0% 99.0% 97.4% 78.2% 78.3% 72.6% 50.9% Logistic: 61.8% 84.8% 79.2% 75.9% 74.5% 83.4% 56.9% 4.5% Bayesian: 51.3% 63.0% 70.2% 60.2% 32.4% 32.5% 6.8% 0.0% Consensus: 61.9% 82.6% 82.8% 77.8% 61.7% 64.8% 45.4% 18.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 WILLA 10/21/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##