* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TARA EP222018 10/16/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 35 35 38 39 40 40 39 39 40 42 43 44 43 42 V (KT) LAND 40 37 35 35 35 38 39 40 40 39 39 40 42 43 44 43 42 V (KT) LGEM 40 35 32 31 30 29 29 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 10 7 9 11 19 20 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 168 172 176 185 228 189 206 213 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 154 156 157 158 157 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 5 7 5 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 52 52 49 47 48 51 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 33 32 8 -14 16 4 1 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 79 50 24 9 17 14 22 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 -1 2 0 8 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 49 39 30 23 28 52 87 89 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.7 19.7 19.8 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.5 104.7 104.9 105.1 105.3 105.8 106.2 106.3 106.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 19 20 23 25 31 35 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 29. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -5. -2. -1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.6 104.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222018 TARA 10/16/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.54 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.31 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 23.9% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.7% 2.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.0% 8.5% 6.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TARA 10/16/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##