* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTWO EP222018 10/15/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 41 48 49 48 49 46 48 50 52 53 54 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 41 48 49 48 49 46 48 50 52 53 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 30 30 31 31 32 32 31 31 32 32 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 9 11 15 11 3 6 7 8 10 11 13 19 10 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 -3 -2 0 -5 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 0 1 7 2 SHEAR DIR 118 117 119 127 139 183 144 155 150 175 188 207 211 233 214 228 170 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 156 156 156 159 159 158 156 155 154 153 153 152 152 151 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.6 -53.6 -52.8 -53.4 -52.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 8 9 6 7 5 7 5 7 6 8 6 8 6 8 700-500 MB RH 63 64 62 61 60 58 53 50 47 46 47 46 45 47 48 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 6 3 3 2 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 64 63 59 60 38 37 6 16 18 38 41 36 24 74 78 73 200 MB DIV 99 94 84 97 91 58 54 26 22 18 24 20 22 45 74 42 36 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 3 0 0 2 -1 8 14 LAND (KM) 124 138 153 161 168 187 211 243 276 339 372 387 394 393 388 384 380 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.2 104.4 104.6 104.7 104.8 105.1 105.6 106.2 106.9 107.8 108.4 108.8 109.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 1 1 1 3 3 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 21 22 22 23 24 24 24 23 22 22 21 21 22 22 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 343 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. 38. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -4. -3. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 18. 19. 18. 19. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.5 104.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222018 TWENTYTWO 10/15/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.83 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.45 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 23.1% 18.1% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 21.4% 54.2% Logistic: 4.8% 14.6% 13.1% 7.0% 3.6% 1.5% 0.3% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 7.0% Consensus: 4.6% 12.7% 10.5% 6.8% 1.2% 0.5% 7.3% 20.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TWENTYTWO 10/15/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##